Pound Reaches Highest in 25 Years on U.K

NEW YORK, April 18 (Reuters) - The dollar touched a 26-year low against sterling and traded near a record low versus the euro on Wednesday as expectations for U.S. rate cuts contrasted with prospects for monetary tightening in Europe and Asia.

The greenback pared some of its earlier losses against the euro and sterling, but it fell against the yen. It also held near Tuesday's 17-year low against the Australian dollar.

The pound touched its strongest in more than a quarter-century after a U.K. report showed wage growth quickened and the Bank of England's minutes said two policy makers voted for higher interest rates.

Interest-rate futures showed traders added to bets the bank will raise its benchmark twice this year, to the highest among Group of Seven nations. The government today reported incomes grew at the fastest pace since 2004 after yesterday saying the rate of inflation was the quickest in a decade. The pound later erased gains as technical charts implied it had surged too fast.

``The job report this morning reinforced expectations the bank will move soon, and the pound responded,'' said Andrew Milligan, head of global strategy in Edinburgh at Standard Life Investments, which oversees about $265 billion of assets. ``The market is driven by rate expectations and differentials.''

The currency rose as high as $2.0133, the strongest since June 1981, two years after Margaret Thatcher became prime minister. It was at $2.0045 at 4:35 p.m. Against the euro, it traded at 67.75 pence, from 67.61 yesterday, after reaching a two- week high.

The pound fell from today's highs as charts including the currency's 14-day relative strength index suggested a six-day winning streak was too rapid. The index was at 72 today. A reading above 70 or below 30 indicates a possible reversal.

``The momentum for the pound to rise is still there,'' said Gavin Friend, head of currency strategy at Commerzbank in London. ``The move higher won't be a straight line.''

Britain's economy was racked by inflation, strikes, high unemployment, and budget and trade deficits when Thatcher came to power in May 1979.

Thatcher Days

Her policies of higher rates and the abolition of exchange controls, along with soaring North Sea oil production, helped push the pound to as high as $2.4175 in September 1980.

The currency has risen 12.8 percent in the past 12 months and yesterday breached $2 for the first time since 1992.

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Forex Mid-Day Technical Report (6 april 2007)

Dollar Soars on Strong Employment Report

Mar NFP added 180k jobs, much higher than expectation of 120k. Feb's job growth was also revised up from 97k to 113k. Unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.4% from 4.5%, meeting last Oct's low. Meanwhile average earnings rose by 0.3%. Dollar reverses yesterday's loss against Euro which reached a 2 year high and dips back below 1.34 level. Meanwhile, Sterling continues yesterday's post BoE meeting weakness and extend further southward against dollar.

EUR/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3374; (P) 1.3407; (R1) 1.3460; More

After reaching new 2 year high of 1.3440, Euro reveres its gain in early US session on broad based dollar strength. 4 hours RSI's pull back from overbought region indicates an intraday top is already in place in 1.3440 and bias is turned to the downside for 1.3352 support. Break of this support will argue that a short term top is in place and deeper decline should be seen towards 1.3253 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.3070 to 1.3440 at 1.3255).

Note that with bearish divergence in 4 hours MACD and RSI as background, risk of a short term reversal has increased. Sustained break of 1.3253/55 clusters support support will have short term rising channel taken out too, indicates that the whole rise from 1.2865 has already completed and should bring deeper decline towards next cluster support at 1.3086 (61.8% retracement of 1.2865 to 1.3440 at 1.3085). However, further rise is still in favor as long as 1.3253/55 cluster support remains intact. break of 1.3440 will indicate recent rally has resumed for 1.3668 (04 high).

In the bigger picture, firstly, with EUR/USD still trading comfortably within medium term rising channel (1.1639, 1.2483, 1.2978) medium term up trend from 1.1639 is still in progress. Such up trend is interpreted as having first move completed with three waves up to 1.2978, subsequent sideway consolidation completed at 1.2483. Rise from 1.2483 has made a top at 1.3364 but subsequent correction has completed with three waves down to 1.2865 already. The current rise from 1.2865 should represent resumption of this whole up trend. Sustained break of 1.3364/09 resistance zone will confirm this and bring further rise towards 1.3668 resistance (04 high)

However, sustained break of 1.3085/86 cluster support will dampen the above view and warn that the whole medium term up trend from 1.1639 might have completed earlier then we thought. Focus will be turned back to medium term rising channel (now at 1.2914).

taken from actionforex.com

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